Europe adipic acid and downstream nylon 6,6 markets face bleak prospects for demand in December, followed by a broadly flat outlook in 2025, with overall weak consumption from key derivative markets. Over the past few months, very slow demand and ample supply has continued to dominate European markets alongside rising costs of production.

In this latest podcast, ICIS editors Meeta Ramnani and Marta Fern share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead.

• Seasonal destocking to weaken buying interest further in December
• Demand could stay low in 2025; recovery depends on macroeconomic factors
• Q1 2025 could bring restocking; its magnitude unclear
• Asian adipic acid import volumes likely to increase in Q1

European chemical producers may have to keep paying high energy prices as geopolitical instability impacts sentiment more than the fundamentals of supply and demand.

- Europe spot electricity prices up 76% this year, ICIS TTF gas price up 40%

- Fear drives markets more than fundamentals which remain bearish

- Demand is reduced compared to five-year average, supply plentiful

- Above average temperatures forecast into December in Europe

- Gas storage around 90%, well above 5-year average

- New sources of US, Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) due onstream in 2025

- Renewable energy will ramp up quickly in Europe

- Donald Trump may increase LNG supply by unfreezing projects

Donald Trump’s proposed tariff hikes on major trading partners could spark a trade war which will drive the end of a globalised chemicals economy plus more local and circular supply chains.

- US-China trade war would drag on economic growth

- World may return to more national and intra-regional trade

- Trump could help drive the end of deglobalization

- Development of more local, circular chemical supply chains

- Chemicals Q3 financial results show some volume growth

- But industry still in the bottom of a trough

- Lack of growth from automotive, construction