Borrowers in Africa and other developing regions are expected to repay $35 billion of Chinese loans this year, with two-thirds of the amount coming from the world's poorest countries. Many of these debts were taken out in the mid-2010s and are now exiting their grace periods, putting enormous pressure on government budgets that were already under strain.

But this isn't a problem just for borrowing countries; Chinese creditors are also finding themselves in a difficult bind. If they push too hard to collect on these debts, it could force the most vulnerable countries into default. At the same time, though, they have an obligation to their stakeholders, including Chinese taxpayers, to ensure these obligations are fulfilled.

Riley Duke, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, highlighted the difficult dilemma for both creditor and borrower in a new report on Chinese debt collection. Riley joins Eric & Cobus from Sydney to discuss how both sides of the transaction are responding to this growing challenge.

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China is emerging from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in a much weaker position. For years, Beijing counted on Tehran to serve as a bulwark against Washington. Today, though, that's no longer possible as the Iranian government and its proxies across the Middle East have been neutralized, at least for now.

The conflict also exposed a major Chinese vulnerability following threats that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the attacks on its nuclear facilities. This would be devastating for the Chinese economy, given that between a third and half of all Chinese oil imports pass through this strategic waterway.

Ahmed Aboudouh, head of the China research unit at the Emirates Policy Center and an associate fellow in the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa program, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the new realities facing Beijing in the aftermath of the war in Iran.

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This week Eric & Cobus sit down with Wu Peng, the director-general of the department of African affairs in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for his perspective on a wide range of issues that are impacting relations between the two regions.

The conversation also features questions from a trio of experts in China-Africa relations including:

• Gyude Moore, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development (@gyude_moore)
• Zainab Usman, director of the Africa program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (@MissZeeUsman)
• Aggrey Mutambo, senior diplomatic affairs writer for the Daily Nation and The East African newspaper (@agmutambo)

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Since its inception in 2013, Chinese government officials have insisted that the Belt and Road is solely an economic initiative and does not have any military motivations. But the BRI's civil-military distinction is no longer as clear cut as it used to be. President Xi Jinping himself called for a strong BRI security system to protect China's overseas interests, people and property.

One little-known aspect of the BRI is that much of the overseas construction, particularly ports, must conform to standards that conform to the People's Liberation Army's requirements. So, while today there's little evidence that China is leveraging the BRI for security or military purposes, there are concerns that it is positioning to be able to do so in the future should the need arise.

Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute, examined the security dimensions of the BRI in a recent paper. Daniel joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what he calls the Belt and Road's "civil-military fusion" in maritime, terrestrial and space environments.

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Over the past 25 years, China’s military engagement with Africa has grown dramatically. In 2000, fewer than 5% of African weapons came from China. Today, Chinese-made armored vehicles are used by 70% of African militaries, and China has become the continent’s largest arms supplier.

Officer training programs have followed a similar trajectory. At the turn of the century, fewer than 200 African officers were trained in China; today, that number exceeds 2,000.

Paul Nantulya, a veteran China–Africa military analyst and research associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, joins Eric and Cobus to unpack his latest findings on how Beijing is deepening its defense ties across the continent.

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In this new era of surging instability and geopolitical uncertainty, so-called "Middle Power" states are rapidly diversifying their foreign policies to deepen engagement with other countries in the Global South, while reducing their exposure to the U.S. and China.

But the approach taken by these middle power countries varies a lot.

A new report by the Körber Foundation in Germany surveyed foreign policy experts from India, Brazil, and South Africa, revealed sharp divergences in how these countries view the global order, the roles of China and the U.S., and the future of multilateral institutions.

Eric & Cobus speak with two of the report’s contributors, Manjeet Kripalani in Mumbai and Carlos Coelho in Rio de Janeiro, about how countries like India and Brazil are navigating this increasingly contested world.

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For years, China has been seen as the pivotal international economic partner across Africa. That was certainly true in terms of steadily rising trade volumes and a fire hose of state backed loans that built roads, railways, and ports across the continent.

But when it comes to investment, China's always been a laggard behind the United States and the former European colonial powers. Today, it's the UAE, not China, that is the continent's largest source of foreign direct investment.

Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C., joins Eric to discuss his latest report on Chinese FDI in Africa and why the long-promised wave of manufacturing investment never materialized.

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U.S. foreign policy towards Africa has been totally upended since Donald Trump returned to power earlier this year. Gone are the decades-old humanitarian programs that have been replaced by a new strategy that focuses on expanding U.S. commercial ties and countering China's presence on the continent.

The State Department's most senior diplomat for Africa, Troy Fitrell, the senior official in the Bureau of African Affairs, appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Sub-Committee on Africa this week to explain the new policy with a particular focus on how the U.S. should challenge "China's malign influence in Africa."

Eric, Cobus, and Geraud review Fitrell's statements on China through a point-by-point analysis, exploring whether Washington's new approach is truly fresh or merely a rehash of what previous administrations have tried to do for years in Africa vis-à-vis the Chinese.

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